Measuring Success in Youth Ministry

According to a study by The Barna Group (Ventura, California), 81% of American teens are engaged in church for an extended period of time yet only 5% hold to even the most basic of historical Christian beliefs.

Other unpublished research of which I am aware, suggests that in a typical large evangelical youth group only about 5% of the teens are genuinely living devoted Christian lives while the other 95% are to varying degrees living "intentionally deceitful dual lives" – in essence putting on a show for parents, teachers and church leaders while living dramatically different lives beyond their view. This same research suggests that there is significantly more pressure to drink, do drug, and have sex within the youth group than among peers outside the youth group. A similar situation seems to exist in Christian schools compared to secular schools.

These findings and others like them beg the question: What's really going on inside our youth groups? What does the make up of our group really look like?

One of the challenges of the Jackson Youth Initiative has been to figure out how to answer these questions.

Visualizing the Situation

The Graph below (Figure 1) represents what many might consider the ideal youth group. You have a few kids who extremely passionate disciples on one end and a few lost people on the verge of becoming new believers on the other and the vast majority are in the middle… beyond new believer but moving toward becoming mature disciples.

 

Figure 1– Ideal Distribution Graph

The same data might be represented by a circle graph(Figure 2) in which the Leader is at the center with the most devoted disciples close to the center and the level of devotion decreases as you move out from the center until you have a few non-believers on the fringes. The arrows represent new people trying to enter the group. Some will be turned away immediately. Those who continue to press in beyond the outer layers of the group will find genuine Christians who can lead them the Christ or to a deeper walk. Those who press in more can find genuine devoted disciples.

 

Figure 2 - Ideal Distribution Circle

I suspect that most youth ministries would say that these graphs are more or less representative of their group. But what if they are wrong?

Left Shift

What if, as some studies suggest, that distribution is shifted farther to the left? (Figure 3, Figure 4)

Figure 3 - Group Distribution Graph Shifted Left


Figure 4 - Group Distribution Circle Shifted Left

In this situation, the Leader is still at the center surrounded by the most devoted of the group. But, the level of devotion decreases dramatically as you move out from the inner circle and a large percentage of the group is comprised of non believers. The arrows still represent new people trying to enter the group. Some will be turned away immediately. Those who continue to press in beyond the outer layers of the group will find that the average person in this youth group is no different from them. Only those who truly press in can even find genuine Christians and even then they may not find devoted disciples.
This group is much different from the ideal group. The entire dynamic has changed. A group like that would need to be ministered to in a different way from one that looks like the ideal group.

Shallow Group

Perhaps the group is not a heavily dominated by unbelievers as represented by Figures 3 and 4. Perhaps it is one that fits the often used phrase "a mile wide and an inch deep." What would that look like? (Figure5, Figure 6)

Figure 5 - Group Distribution Graph – Shallow


Figure 6 - Group Distribution Circle – Shallow

This situation is more similar to the Left Shift group than the ideal group in many ways. While this group is not dominated by strong nonbelievers, it is also not dominated by strong Christians. In this situation, the Leader is still at the center surrounded by the most devoted of the group but this is a group of weak believers. The level of devotion decreases as you move out from the inner circle and a large percentage of the group is so shallow as to be virtually indistinguishable from of non believers. The arrows still represent new people trying to enter the group. Some will be turned away immediately. Those who continue to press in beyond the outer layers of the group will again find that the average person in this youth group is no different from them. Only those who truly press in can even find genuine Christians and even then they may not find devoted disciples.

It seems to me that it would be very important to know which of these groups you were dealing with as a leader and as a prospective group member. It would also be important if you were a parent. How many parents think they are sending the kids to a group that looks like the first one when in fact they are sending them to one of the others?

But how do you know? To my knowledge, no one does an assessment of group distribution like those represented here. If someone were to do such a thing, I think the key would be how do you 1) define and 2) measure the scale (Figure 7)

Figure 7 - Scale

If anyone knows of a scale or measurement system like this, please let me know.

Gracefully Passing the Baton by George Barna

Gracefully Passing the Baton by George Barna

Hey, fellow Baby Boomers. Can we talk?

For many years, we have sweated, argued, fought, manipulated, analyzed, partnered, prayed and strategized to get our own way. We wanted the nation’s values to reflect our own. We wanted to have our fair share (or more) of the decision-making authority. We wiggled our way into key positions as soon as possible. After a period in which we said the system was the problem, we took over the system. Today, we are the system, and there are two generations following us who see that as a serious issue.

For whatever reasons He may have, God has pretty much granted our desires. We have wrestled control of the levers of power and authority away from our predecessors earlier than usual and have wielded that power with more glee than grace. When you examine the ranks of the nation’s corner offices, you find Boomers dominating the positions of CEO, COO, CFO, board chairmen, and corporate president. We have held that sway for the better part of the last decade. The only positions we have largely abdicated are CIO and CTO – the top-dog information and technology posts that rightfully belong to Busters. After all, they understand the digital revolution – we just figure out how to make money off it.

Even within the local church, Boomers rule the roost. Today, 61% of Protestant Senior Pastors are from our generation. Among the current lay leaders, 58% are Boomers. And if money talks, then we have the floor: 50% of the money given to churches last year came out of the pockets of Boomers. (That’s more than double the amount given by any other generation.)

Unfortunately, we are not good at sharing. If we are the richest generation the world has ever encountered, we are also its most selfish. And we are driven by the one value that defines us and on which we are willing to squander our money: power. We believe so deeply in our decision-making capacity, and we enjoy the control and perks of calling the shots so much, that we have no intention of relinquishing that power, regardless of traditions, expectations, reason or future interests.

If you think America’s war against al-Qaeda is a tough, uphill battle, you ain’t seen nothing yet. Take a look at the transition of power that is – well, should be – happening within churches.

Here’s the bottom line: our generation’s time on the throne is quickly coming to an end. In 2011 the first Boomer will reach age 65. By 2015, 15 million of us will be 65-plus; by 2020, 31 million; by 2025, the U.S. will harbor a mid-sized nation within its borders of 65-plus Boomers (an estimated 48 million).

If all went according to plan, we’d be hard at work implementing the world’s most sophisticated and superbly executed transition plan to install the new strata of leaders. We are brilliant strategists and tacticians – just ask us. No generation has ever risen to the heights of excellence that we have, when we put our minds to it. The Builders were a can-do, get-it-done generation. But the Boomers are the ultimate take-no-prisoners generation when it comes to shaping society – and, in some cases, the world.

But where is that transition plan? Who is working it to perfection? When are we planning to hand over the keys to the kingdoms we have built these last several decades? Who are the successors we are preparing to stand on our shoulders and build on the foundations we have laid – as our fathers did with us?

You’d think that since we are the richest generation in world history, and we have acquired more toys, amenities, comforts, security mechanism and pleasure options than we can even quantify, we’d be excited about helping our children to follow in our footsteps.

It makes sense. But it’s not happening.

The sticking point is our core value: power. We love power. We live for power. Power lunches, power ties, power suits, power offices, power titles, power cars, power networks. Whether it is because of an unhealthy desire for control, a reasonable concern about maintaining quality, a sense of exhilaration received from making pressure-packed, life-changing decisions or due to other motivations, Boomers revel in power. The sad result is that most Boomers – even those in the pastorate or in voluntary, lay-leadership positions in churches – have no intention of lovingly handing the baton to Baby Busters.

In self-defense, we may point out that Busters are not poised to lead effectively. They whine and they lack the ferocious work ethic that allowed us to reign. They are not as good at analysis and prescription. They lack the vision to see beyond incremental gains and thus fail to motivate people to pursue grand dreams. They refuse to sacrifice their own resources to make the kill. Often, they don’t even respect the notion, much less position, of leadership.

And how many of us have tried to mentor them, only to experience their tepid commitment or an outright rejection of our efforts because they don’t like our values or tactics? When we have tried to frame reality for them, they waved their postmodern views in our modern faces.

However, this is more rationalizing than wise, strategic, fruitful, biblical thinking. Busters are not the perfect successors we wish they were – just as we were not the perfect successors to our accomplished, world-changing Builder predecessors. My advice to us: get over it.

So here’s what I see coming down the line. Conflict between the generations over position and authority. Widespread Buster flight from the institutions and movements we have labored for so long to build up. Classic damage control by Boomers, positioning us as the saviors compensating for a younger generation of irreverent and incompetent wanna-be’s. And, ultimately, the further dilapidation (and, in some cases, collapse) of the local church as we know it today. There are many churches where this scenario is already staging Act 1, Scene 1.

There are four things that we probably need to do regarding the integration of Busters (and even some of the younger Mosaics) into the positions of power and authority within our religious institutions.

First, Boomers have to graciously and joyously let go of the reigns. We have had our chance and we made the best of it. It was a privilege to lead God’s people and to challenge society to join Him in His ways, but it was a privilege granted, not earned, and which now rightfully must be passed on to the next generation.

If we can objectively examine the big picture we will realize that our efforts cannot bear the maximum return on our investment until we enable those who follow us to embrace and enhance what we developed.

As self-absorbed people, we struggle to acknowledge that the Church – and, for that matter, life – is not about us. The purpose of our leadership is not to magnify self but to be used by God in the furtherance of His kingdom. Insistence upon continued control is a clear reflection that we do not understand God’s purposes for us, and that we have misled the community of believers. As an act of Christian stewardship it is our responsibility to pass on the baton with grace, love, hope, excitement and joy. This is not a “sacrifice” on our part: it was God who allowed us to lead, for a season, and it is His prerogative to usher in a new cadre of leaders to pick up where we left off.

Second, let’s use our world-class giftedness to create a plan for the transition. I don’t know about you, but I’m tired of seeing weak-kneed, dump-and-run transitions where the Boomer arrogantly and self-righteously leaves without setting the table for the Buster who follows. If people take their cues from leaders, what message does such behavior send? Besides, Boomers have achieved numerous breakthroughs during our tenure by planning our actions and carefully executing the plan. Handing off the baton demands the best plan we have yet crafted. The plan must establish the timing of your departure and the process for preparing your successors to succeed. Where’s your plan?

Third, we must allow – and even encourage – the emergence of new models of ministry that either improve or replace what we introduced and nurtured. Just as ministry models such as seeker, praise-and-worship and even multi-ethnic ministries were our refinements of or responses to Builder institutions, we must anticipate and support such progress even if it is not what we might have done. Scripture gives them, as it gave us, abundant leeway in methodology. Let them put their fingerprints all over the model they develop.

Keep in mind that a great leader is defined not by the methods that he/she deployed but by their commitment to the vision that God has entrusted to him/her. Even in exiting, your responsibility is to make sure the vision is championed after you leave. So build bridges with your predecessors to ensure the vision lives on, and allow them to build on the vision in ways that respect the vision but reflect the evolving context. Busters will use different language, different symbols and icons, and different procedures. So what? If you have shared God’s vision in a way that they, too, treasure and commit to it, then you have done your job. Move on.

Finally, spend hours of time in prayer to honestly seek God’s guidance in this transitional time. The fact that you are reading this probably means you have some type of church leadership role. Consider what you are doing to facilitate an appropriate transition of power to the next generation. We do not want to be “the old farts hanging on to positions of power, reveling in their past glories.” (Does that sound vaguely familiar – perhaps as something you and I might have said 25 years ago when we were scheming to grab the power and positions held by our parents?) Let God speak – and listen carefully to what He is asking us to do with the gift of responsibility that He entrusted to us for a season. Never forget the Genesis 12 principle – you have been blessed to be a blessing. How does the Lord want you to bless – rather than bully and block – the generation of leaders who will inevitably replace you? What can you teach them about the heart and the character of God through the way you welcome them into leadership?

Hey, we’re just Boomers, not the “old farts” we once saw as the threat to our own self-realization. I bet you’re not ready to be put out to pasture just yet. You have a lot to give to many people – and a lot of joy to receive from imparting your years of experience-based wisdom. Show that wisdom by championing the rise of a few young leaders today. It’s a win-win strategy.

http://www.barna.org/component/wordpress/archives/77

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Forrest Berry

Report Examines the State of Mainline Protestant Churches

Report Examines the State of Mainline Protestant Churches

Ventura, CA - December 7, 2009 When Baby Boomers were born, the Protestant landscape of America was dominated by the six major mainline denominations. (Those bodies are typically considered to be the American Baptist Churches in the USA; the Episcopal Church; the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America; the Presbyterian Church (USA); the United Church of Christ; and the United Methodist Church.) Since the 1950s, however, mainline churches have fallen on hard times, declining from more than 80,000 churches to about 72,000 today. The growth among evangelical and Pentecostal churches since the 1950s, combined with the shrinking of the mainline sector, has diminished mainline churches to just one-fifth of all Protestant congregations today. In the past fifty years, mainline church membership dropped by more than one-quarter to roughly 20 million people. Adult church attendance indicates that only 15% of all American adults associate with a mainline church these days. A new report issued by The Barna Group focuses upon changes in the mainline churches during the past decade. The report examines shifts in both the adults who attend those churches and the pastors who lead them. Congregant Statistics Over the course of the past decade, the number of adults who attend a mainline church on any given weekend has remained relatively stable, ranging from 89 to 100. The current median is 99 adults. One reason why that average has remained steady has been the population growth of the United States, with the mainline churches attracting just enough newcomers to maintain attendance levels that are similar to the years when the nation’s population was considerably smaller. The current attendance figure is lower than the norm during the heyday of the mainline bodies. Demographics suggest that the mainline churches may be on the precipice of a period of decline unless remedial steps are taken. For instance, in the past decade there has been a 22% drop in the percentage of adults attending mainline congregations who have children under the age of 18 living in their home. Also, the proportion of single adults has risen, now representing 39% of all adult attenders. That has been driven higher by a rise in the number of divorced and widowed adherents. The numerical decline is also related to the relative difficulty that mainline churches have experienced in attracting young adults. For instance, young adults (25 or younger) are 6% of the national population, they are just one-third as many (2%) of all adults attending mainline churches. At the other end of the age continuum, the statistics show that about one-quarter (27%) of American adults are 60 or older, but more than one-third of mainline attenders (35%) are 60-plus. Another hurdle for the mainline bodies has been attracting minorities. These churches struggle in reaching Hispanics and Asians. While Hispanics make up 16% of the US population, they are only 6% of the mainline population. Asians represent 4% of the American public, but only half that proportion among mainline congregants. The failure to add substantial numbers of Hispanics is especially significant, given both the rapid increase of the Hispanic population as well as the outflow of Hispanics from Catholicism to Protestant churches in the past decade. Most of the Hispanics leaving Catholicism for another faith community are settling into evangelical or Pentecostal Protestant churches. There is a behavioral reason for the decline of mainline churches, too: just one-third (31%) of mainline adults believe they have a personal responsibility to discuss their faith with people who have different beliefs. Commitment and Loyalty Sometimes money can mask a serious problem. That may be the case within the mainline community. Cumulatively, these denominations generate more than $15 billion in donations each year. In fact, during the past decade the median church budget of mainline congregations has risen substantially – up 51%, to about $165,000 annually. As positive as that sounds, though, chances are good that the upward pattern will not continue. One reason is the relative decline in the household incomes of mainline adherents. During the past decade, the educational achievement of mainline congregants has plateaued while the median household income level has suffered. In 1998, the median income was 12% higher than the national average, while in 2008 the median among mainline households was 2% lower than the national norm. Money may be the least of the mainline’s challenges, though. A bigger worry is the decreasing engagement of congregants with church life. As noted earlier, weekly attendance figures have remained stable, but that hides the underlying problem of softer commitments. For example, adherents attend church services less frequency than they used to. Volunteerism in these churches is down by an alarming 21% since 1998. Adult Sunday school involvement has also declined, by 17% since 1998. The tenuous ties that millions of mainline adults have with their church are exemplified by their willingness to consider other spiritual options. Just half (49%) describe themselves as “absolutely committed to Christianity.” Slightly more (51%) are willing to try a new church. Two-thirds (67%) are open to pursuing faith in environments or structures that are different from those of a typical church. Almost three-quarters (72%) say they are more likely to develop own religious beliefs than to adopt those taught by their church. And nine out of ten (86%) sense that God is motivating people to stay connected to Him through different means and experiences than in the past. Evidence of waffling commitment is found elsewhere, as well. A minority of mainline attenders are presently involved in some type of personal discipleship activity. Less than half contend that the Bible is accurate in the life principles it teaches. Only half of all mainline adults say that they are on a personal quest for spiritual truth. And when asked to identify their highest priority in life, less than one out of every ten mainline adults (9%) says some aspect of faith constitutes their top priority. Mainline Pastors The nature of those who lead mainline congregations has been rapidly changing, too. One of the most telling findings in the Barna study was the aging of mainline pastors. A decade ago the median age of mainline Senior Pastors was 48; today it is 55. That represents a shockingly fast increase, representing a combination of too few young pastors entering the ranks and a large share of older pastors not retiring. Another study by Barna found that an unusually high share of Boomer pastors are refusing to retire or plan to retire in their mid-sixties, and that succession planning is a glaring weakness in most Protestant churches. To read more about the imbalance between younger and older pastors, click here. The percentage of mainline Senior Pastors who are female has risen dramatically, from 15% to 21% in the last 10 years. Oddly, while the education level of mainline pastors has dropped a bit – 82% have a seminary degree, down from 90% in 1998 – compensation levels have jumped substantially, rising by 40% in the last decade. Currently, senior pastor compensation packages represent one-third (33%) of the typical mainline congregation’s budget. One of the enduring idiosyncrasies of mainline churches is the brief tenure of pastors in a church. On average, these pastors last four years before moving to another congregation. That is about half the average among Protestant pastors in non-mainline churches. Equally significant is the fact that 93% of mainline senior pastors consider themselves to be a leader, yet only 12% claim to have the spiritual gift of leadership. George Barna, the researcher who analyzed the data for the report, commented that mainline Protestant churches seem to have weathered the past decade better than many people have assumed, but that the future is raising serious challenges to continued stability. He identified the quality of leadership provided – especially regarding vision, creativity, strategic thinking, and the courage to take risks – as being the most critical element in determining the future health and growth of mainline congregations. He also indicated that the approach that many mainline churches take toward some current social issues – e.g., environmental challenges, poverty, cross-denominational cooperation, developing respectful dialogue, embracing new models for faith expression, and global understanding – position those churches well for attracting younger Americans. About The Barna Group The Barna Group, Ltd. (which includes its research division, The Barna Research Group) was started in 1984 by George Barna. It is a private, non-partisan, for-profit organization that conducts primary research on a wide range of issues and products, produces resources pertaining to cultural change, leadership and spiritual development, and facilitates the healthy spiritual growth of leaders, children, families and Christian ministries. Located in Ventura, California, Barna conducts and analyzes primary research to understand cultural trends related to values, beliefs, attitudes and behaviors. If you would like to receive free e-mail notification of the release of each new, bi-monthly update on the latest research findings from The Barna Group, you may subscribe to this free service at the Barna website (http://www.barna.org%29/. Additional research-based resources, both free and at discounted prices, are also available through that website. About the Research This report is based upon several national telephone surveys conducted by The Barna Group. The surveys among mainline adults in 1998 included 267 adults; in 2008, there were 1,148 mainline attenders interviewed. The surveys among pastors involved 492 mainline senior pastors drawn from random samples of Protestant churches. The range of sampling error associated with the sample of 267 adults is between ±2.7 and ±6.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The range of sampling error associated with the sample of 1,148 adults is between ±1.3 and ±3.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. These allowances do not include other types of error (known as non-sampling error) that can occur in surveys, such as errors arising from question wording, question sequencing, and the recording of responses. © The Barna Group, Ltd, 2009. Copyright Disclaimer: All the information contained on the barna.org website is copyrighted by The Barna Group, Ltd., 2368 Eastman Ave. Unit 12, Ventura, California 93003. No portion of this website (articles, graphs, charts, reviews, pictures, video clips, quotes, statistics, etc.) may be reproduced, retransmitted, disseminated, sold, distributed, published, edited, altered, changed, broadcast, circulated, or commercially exploited without the prior written permission from The Barna Group, Ltd.

http://www.barna.org/barna-update/article/17-leadership/323-report-examines-the-state-of-mainline-protestant-churches

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Forrest Berry