Friday, February 29, 2008

Initiative

 

Interesting quote form an essay online...

In those same high school years--the years in which I was morally formed-- I was very perplexed by alternating news reports. In some incidents, reminiscent of the notorious killing of Kitty Genovese, groups of people stood by while someone was assaulted or killed. In others, a group of people would go to a victim's aid, perform a rescue and hold the assailant for the police. I helped chase a couple of thieves in the street myself, and realized the explanation. I was running because someone else had shouted "Stop thief!" and started off down the street. When crowds rescue a victim, someone has acted first, and others followed. When crowds stand by, no-one has taken the initiative. Most people are probably poised precariously on the edge between action and inaction, between good and evil. Everything depends on the one who steps forward.

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Barna Finds Four Mega-Themes in Recent Research

The Following is a Barna Update

Barna Finds Four Mega-Themes in Recent Research

December 3, 2007

(Ventura, CA) - A high-profile research firm has published a description of the four most salient trends that emerged from its studies throughout 2007. The Barna Group continually tracks cultural changes, especially in relation to matters of faith, entertainment, lifestyles and values. A special analysis of thousands of interviews the company conducted during 2007 identifies several patterns that are significantly affecting the development of American culture. Those transformations were described as Americans’ unconditional self-love; nouveau Christianity; the five Ps of parenting; and designer faith with rootless values.

Americans Accept Themselves Unconditionally

Barna studies underscored the fact that Americans have a high opinion of themselves - and lingering reservations about others. Despite their self-satisfaction, many Americans want to continue to change and grow.

Among the terms that more than four out of five adults selected to describe themselves were loyal, reliable, independent thinker, supportive of traditional family values, clear about the meaning and purpose of their life, making a positive difference in the world, and well-informed about current events. More than two out of three also noted that they are open to new ideas and easily adapt to change.

The prevailing paths to maturation, however, are usually not characterized by planned or intentional development; instead, engagement in a series of adventurous experiments seems to be the norm. When it does occur, growth takes place rather unpredictably, and the changes accepted are typically adopted on the basis of feelings. Most Americans, it seems, are willing to change as long as the pathway promises benefit and enjoyment, and generally avoids pain, conflict and sacrifice.

The data also indicated that Americans increasingly require unique personal applications for the things they experience. Somewhat paradoxically, they also want to be seen as being in the mainstream of what’s happening in society. It seems that many Americans are seeking to be viewed as individuals distinct from the ever-growing masses.

Another oddity observed through the research is that adults - especially those under 30 - regularly strive to be connected to a substantial number of other people and yet possess a nagging sense of loneliness, isolation and restlessness. The constant involvement with social networking via the Internet, text messaging and phone calls via mobile devices, and frequent appearances at common hangouts (think Starbucks, movie theaters and favorite restaurants) are manifestations of the investment in relationships and connections that are important but somehow not as fulfilling as desired.

To gain more insight into the cultural changes affecting America,
and how those shifts intersect with people’s faith,
read George Barna’s acclaimed book,

click here

Nouveau Christianity

The research discovered that people are reframing not just faith in general, but Christianity in particular. While slightly fewer adults - and many fewer teens - are identifying themselves as Christians these days, the image of the Christian faith has taken a beating. This battered image is the result of a combination of factors: harsh media criticism, "unchristian" behavior by church people, bad personal experiences with churches, ineffective Christian leadership amid social crises, and the like. The result is that those who choose to remain Christian - however they define it - are also reformulating the popular notion of what "Christian" and the Christian life mean. Some of those changes are producing favorable outcomes, while others are less appealing.

For instance, a generational analysis of the Barna data showed that spiritual practices among those who claim to be Christians are shifting dramatically. New practices are in vogue: embracing racial diversity and tolerance within congregations; pursuing spiritual diversity in conversations and relationships; valuing interpersonal connections above spiritual education; blending all forms of the arts and novel forms of instruction into religious events; and accepting divergent forms of spiritual community (e.g., house churches, intentional communities, marketplace ministries). Traditional ventures such as integrating discipline and regimen in personal faith development are becoming less popular. Repeating the same weekly routines in religious events is increasingly deemed anachronistic, stifling and irrelevant. Rigidity of belief - which includes the notion that there are absolute moral and spiritual truths - perceived by a large (and growing) share of young people to be evidence of closed-mindedness.

The result is a nouveau form and structure for the Christian faith that will have broad-based consequences on the practice of Christianity for years to come.

For further information about the impact of new views
and behaviors of young people on Christianity,
read unChristian, David Kinnaman’s new book providing
new research and expert analyses on this subject.

Click here

The 5 Ps of Parenting

Most parents want to do a great job of raising their children. However, Barna studies conducted throughout the year among parents of children under 18 revealed that few parents have a strategy or plan for how they will accomplish that goal. There are, however, five primary outcomes that most parents have focused upon and serve as a de facto strategy. George Barna, author of the book Revolutionary Parenting, about parenting strategies, called them the "five P’s of parental hope."

1. Preparation. Millions of parents enroll their youngsters in numerous and varied activities in order to prepare their children for success. Most parents do not see themselves as the key to grooming a well-rounded child; they believe their role is to place their child in developmental environments and under the tutelage of those who can take their prodigies to the next level of proficiency.

2. Performing well. Parents look for measures of productivity that indicate how their child is doing on the path to success. Good grades in school, scoring in sports, and performing well in artistic endeavors are among the measures parents rely upon, as well as feedback from other parents, teachers, coaches, pastors and other experts.

3. Pressure management. Amidst significant parental expectations, stiff academic standards and peer pressure, many kids struggle to stay healthy and balanced. Parents who are cognizant of these mounting pressures attempt to help their offspring learn how to manage stress, competition and disappointments.

4. Protection. The age-old problem of bullies - still considered by kids, parents and teachers to be a significant issue - can be added to such parental fears as kidnapping, drugs, and sexualization, making the security of children one of the top priorities of parents.

5. Public perception. In a society where image is reality, and parents are as anxious about their image as a parent as they are about their child’s image in their peer group, influencing public perceptions is a major concern among parents. Like politicians, many parents hone their skills in spin control and positioning in order to place them and their children in the best possible light.

Barna’s surveys point out that most parents underestimate the influence they can exert on their children. Consequently, they often focus on the 5 Ps but neglect emphasis upon activities that would strengthen their relational bond with the children. Many parents, even those who are born again Christians, also overlook the need to foster deeper a connection between their children and God, or to enhance the child’s worldview as a critical component of their decision-making skills.

For additional insights into effective parenting, read Revolutionary Parenting, George Barna’s research regarding parents who raised outstanding young adults.
Click here

Designer Faith, Rootless Values

As young adults, teenagers and adolescents have become accustomed to radical individualism, they have introduced such thinking and behavior into the faith realm, as well. Faith is an acceptable attribute and pursuit among most young people. However, their notions of faith do not align with conventional religious perspectives or behavior. For instance, young people are still likely to claim the label "Christian," but the definition of that term has been broadened beyond traditional parameters.

In fact, the values that young people are prone to embrace are often consistent with Christian beliefs but are not based on biblical foundations. For instance, while young Americans have adopted values such as goodness, kindness and tolerance, they remain skeptical of the Bible, church traditions, and rules or behaviors based upon religious teaching.

A Challenging Future

As 2008 looms on the horizon, George Barna, chairman of the company that conducted the research projects throughout the year, encouraged people to approach the future with purpose and creativity.

"It is a well-established fact that our society is continually re-inventing itself. The outcome of such innovation and change, however, is largely dependent on the guidance provided by cultural leaders," Barna noted. "It is the core function of a leader to help people apply their creative ideas and energy to reinvigorating society in alignment with a positive and preferable vision of the future. Without a shaping influence that produces a common good, we devolve into anarchy.

"Each of us has an obligation to do what is best not just for ourselves but for others in the world, too," Barna cautioned. "Our society is running the risk of becoming so independent and self-absorbed that we will abandon our responsibility to society and to making the world a better place. 2008 will be an important year as America chooses future political leaders, pursues new spiritual forms, and shapes critical social policies. The choices will greatly influence the character of America for years to come. Hopefully, Americans will choose to apply their levels of personal influence in ways that generate social good, not just personal security and satisfaction. Identifying what each of us can do to avoid radical self-interest in favor of a more compassionate and collaborative society should find a place on everyone’s list of New Year’s resolutions."

About the Research

This report is based upon a year’s worth of national telephone and online surveys among adults, teenagers and adolescents conducted by The Barna Group. Each of the surveys included a minimum of 600 respondents and a maximum of 2000, all randomly selected from the general population.

The Barna Group, Ltd. (which includes its research division, The Barna Research Group) conducts primary research, produces media resources pertaining to spiritual development, and facilitates the healthy spiritual growth of leaders, children, families and Christian ministries. Located in Ventura, California, Barna has been conducting and analyzing primary research to understand cultural trends related to values, beliefs, attitudes and behaviors since 1984. If you would like to receive free e-mail notification of the release of each new, bi-monthly update on the latest research findings from The Barna Group, you may subscribe to this free service at the Barna website www.barna.org.

© The Barna Group, Ltd, 2007.

Copyright Disclaimer: All the information contained on the barna.org website is copyrighted by The Barna Group, Ltd., 1957 Eastman Ave. Ste B, Ventura, California 93003. No portion of this website (articles, graphs, charts, reviews, pictures, video clips, quotes, statistics, etc.) may be reproduced, retransmitted, disseminated, sold, distributed, published, edited, altered, changed, broadcast, circulated, or commercially exploited without the prior written permission from The Barna Group, Ltd.

A New Generation Expresses its Skepticism and Frustration with Christianity

The Following is a Barna Update

A New Generation Expresses its Skepticism and Frustration with Christianity

September 24, 2007

(Ventura, CA) - As the nation’s culture changes in diverse ways, one of the most significant shifts is the declining reputation of Christianity, especially among young Americans. A new study by The Barna Group conducted among 16- to 29-year-olds shows that a new generation is more skeptical of and resistant to Christianity than were people of the same age just a decade ago.

The study of Christianity’s slipping image is explored in a new book, entitled unChristian, by David Kinnaman, the president of The Barna Group. The study is a result of collaboration between Kinnaman and Gabe Lyons of the Fermi Project.

Rising Reactions

The study shows that 16- to 29-year-olds exhibit a greater degree of criticism toward Christianity than did previous generations when they were at the same stage of life. In fact, in just a decade, many of the Barna measures of the Christian image have shifted substantially downward, fueled in part by a growing sense of disengagement and disillusionment among young people. For instance, a decade ago the vast majority of Americans outside the Christian faith, including young people, felt favorably toward Christianity’s role in society. Currently, however, just 16% of non-Christians in their late teens and twenties said they have a "good impression" of Christianity.

One of the groups hit hardest by the criticism is evangelicals. Such believers have always been viewed with skepticism in the broader culture. However, those negative views are crystallizing and intensifying among young non-Christians. The new study shows that only 3% of 16 - to 29-year-old non-Christians express favorable views of evangelicals. This means that today’s young non-Christians are eight times less likely to experience positive associations toward evangelicals than were non-Christians of the Boomer generation (25%).

The research shows that many Christians are innately aware of this shift in people’s perceptions of Christianity: 91% of the nation’s evangelicals believe that "Americans are becoming more hostile and negative toward Christianity." Among senior pastors, half contend that "ministry is more difficult than ever before because people are increasingly hostile and negative toward Christianity."

The Set of Perceptions

While Christianity has typically generated an uneven reputation, the research shows that many of the most common critiques are becoming more concentrated. The study explored twenty specific images related to Christianity, including ten favorable and ten unfavorable perceptions. Among young non-Christians, nine out of the top 12 perceptions were negative. Common negative perceptions include that present-day Christianity is judgmental (87%), hypocritical (85%), old-fashioned (78%), and too involved in politics (75%) - representing large proportions of young outsiders who attach these negative labels to Christians. The most common favorable perceptions were that Christianity teaches the same basic ideas as other religions (82%), has good values and principles (76%), is friendly (71%), and is a faith they respect (55%).

Even among young Christians, many of the negative images generated significant traction. Half of young churchgoers said they perceive Christianity to be judgmental, hypocritical, and too political. One-third said it was old-fashioned and out of touch with reality.

Interestingly, the study discovered a new image that has steadily grown in prominence over the last decade. Today, the most common perception is that present-day Christianity is "anti-homosexual." Overall, 91% of young non-Christians and 80% of young churchgoers say this phrase describes Christianity. As the research probed this perception, non-Christians and Christians explained that beyond their recognition that Christians oppose homosexuality, they believe that Christians show excessive contempt and unloving attitudes towards gays and lesbians. One of the most frequent criticisms of young Christians was that they believe the church has made homosexuality a "bigger sin" than anything else. Moreover, they claim that the church has not helped them apply the biblical teaching on homosexuality to their friendships with gays and lesbians.

The ‘UnChristian’ Label

When young people were asked to identify their impressions of Christianity, one of the common themes was "Christianity is changed from what it used to be" and "Christianity in today’s society no longer looks like Jesus." These comments were the most frequent unprompted images that young people called to mind, mentioned by one-quarter of both young non-Christians (23%) and born again Christians (22%).

Kinnaman explained, "That’s where the term 'unChristian' came from. Young people are very candid. In our interviews, we kept encountering young people - both those inside the church and outside of it - who said that something was broken in the present-day expression of Christianity. Their perceptions about Christianity were not always accurate, but what surprised me was not only the severity of their frustration with Christians, but also how frequently young born again Christians expressed some of the very same comments as young non-Christians."

Changing Allegiances

One reason that Christianity’s image is changing is due to the shifting faith allegiances of Americans. Simply put, each new generation has a larger share of people who are not Christians (that is, atheists, agnostics, people associated with another faith, or those who have essentially no faith orientation). The new book refers to this group as "outsiders" because they are describing what Christianity looks like from an outsider’s perspective. Among adults over the age of 40, only about one-quarter qualify as outsiders, while among the 16 to 29 segment, two-fifths are outsiders. This represents a significant migration away from the dominant role that Christianity has had in America.

The Proportion of those "Outside"
Christianity is Growing with Each Generation

Source: The Barna Group, Ltd. 2007

As pointed out in the Barna Update related to atheists and agnostics, this is not a passing fad wherein young people will become "more Christian" as they grow up. While Christianity remains the typical experience and most common faith in America, a fundamental recalibration is occurring within the spiritual allegiance of America’s upcoming generations.

Yet, the research shows that millions of young outsiders have significant experience with Christians and Christian churches. The typical young outsider says they have five friends who are Christians; more than four out of five have attended a Christian church for a period of at least six months in the past; and half have previously considered becoming a Christian.

"Older generations more easily dismiss the criticism of those who are outsiders," Kinnaman said. "But we discovered that young leaders and young Christians are more aware of and concerned about the views of outsiders, because they are more likely to interact closely with such people. Their life is more deeply affected by the negative image of Christianity. For them, what Christianity looks like from an outsider’s perspective has greater relevance, because outsiders are more likely to be schoolmates, colleagues, and friends."

Responding to the Research

David Kinnaman, who is a 12-year-veteran of the Barna team, pointed out some of the unexpected findings of the research. "Going into this three-year project, I assumed that people’s perceptions were generally soft, based on misinformation, and would gradually morph into more traditional views. But then, as we probed why young people had come to such conclusions, I was surprised how much their perceptions were rooted in specific stories and personal interactions with Christians and in churches. When they labeled Christians as judgmental this was not merely spiritual defensiveness. It was frequently the result of truly ‘unChristian’ experiences. We discovered that the descriptions that young people offered of Christianity were more thoughtful, nuanced, and experiential than expected."

"Some Christians fear the changing reputation of Christianity and it certainly represents an uncomfortable future. Yet, rather than being defensive or dismissive, we should learn from critics, especially those young Christians who are expressing consternation about the state of faith in America. Jesus told us to expect hostility and negative reactions. That is certainly nothing new. But the issue is what we do with it. Is it a chance to defend yourself and demand your rights? Or is it an opportunity to show people grace and truth? Common ground is becoming more difficult to find between Christians and those outside the faith. When the Apostle Paul advises believers to 'live wisely among those who are not Christians' and to 'let your conversation be gracious and effective,' (Colossians 4:5-6, NLT) he could be writing no better advice to committed Christians in America."

The book also includes exclusive perspective from 30 Christian leaders, including Mark Batterson, Chuck Colson, Louie Giglio, Dan Kimball, Brian McLaren, Kevin Palau, John Stott, and Rick Warren. Kinnaman described their contribution as an effort "to make sense of the complex and challenging project - both why the problems exist as well as what Christians ought to do in response to the information. We looked for the biblical space in order to respond to the sharpest criticism. Beyond simply reporting the problems that we discovered among a skeptical generation, my partner Gabe Lyons and I want the book to help Christians find a way forward, to read positive examples and find hope that their life can provide a clearer picture of Jesus to skeptical people around them."

unChristian: What a New Generation Really Thinks
About Christianity ... and Why It Matters

place orders here
read an excerpt
read what George Barna says in the foreword

Research Details

The Barna Group, Ltd. (which includes its research division, The Barna Research Group) is a privately held, for-profit corporation that conducts primary research, produces audio, visual and print media, and facilitates the healthy development of leaders, children, families and Christian ministries. Located in Ventura, California, Barna has been conducting and analyzing primary research to understand cultural trends related to values, beliefs, attitudes and behaviors since 1984. If you would like to receive free e-mail notification of the release of each new, bi-weekly update on the latest research findings from The Barna Group, you may subscribe to this free service at the Barna web site www.barna.org.

© The Barna Group, Ltd, 2007.

Copyright Disclaimer: All the information contained on the barna.org website is copyrighted by The Barna Group, Ltd., 1957 Eastman Ave. Ste B, Ventura, California 93003. No portion of this website (articles, graphs, charts, reviews, pictures, video clips, quotes, statistics, etc.) may be reproduced, retransmitted, disseminated, sold, distributed, published, edited, altered, changed, broadcast, circulated, or commercially exploited without the prior written permission from The Barna Group, Ltd.

Americans Embrace Various Alternatives to a Conventional Church Experience as Being Fully Biblical

The following is a Barna Update

Americans Embrace Various Alternatives to a Conventional Church Experience as Being Fully Biblical

February 18, 2008

(Ventura, CA) 2008 promises to be a year of significant change for Americans. The presidential election has already introduced significant transitions into the political process and conversation. The sagging economy is altering many people’s financial behavior and lifestyles. New technology is transforming perceptions of the world and how we connect with people. And a new study from The Barna Group suggests that a major shift in people’s spirituality is now well under way.

Change of Heart

For decades, American Christians, who comprise more than four of our every five adults, assumed they had one legitimate way to practice their faith: through involvement in a conventional church. But new research shows that this mind set is no longer prevalent in the U.S. The latest Barna study shows that a majority of adults now believe that there are various biblically legitimate alternatives to participation in a conventional church.

Each of six alternatives was deemed by a most adults to be "a complete and biblically valid way for someone who does NOT participate in the services or activities of a conventional church to experience and express their faith in God." Those alternatives include engaging in faith activities at home, with one’s family (considered acceptable by 89% of adults); being active in a house church (75%); watching a religious television program (69%); listening to a religious radio broadcast (68%); attending a special ministry event, such as a concert or community service activity (68%); and participating in a marketplace ministry (54%).

Smaller proportions of the public consider other alternatives to be complete and biblically valid ways of experiencing and expressing their faith in God. Those include interacting with a faith-oriented website (45%) and participating in live events via the Internet (42%).

Activity Outside the Conventional Church

The Barna study also found that tens of millions of people are experiencing and expressing their faith in God independent of any connection to a conventional church. In the past month, 55% of adults had attended a conventional church service. During that same month, 28% of all adults who did not attend a conventional church activity did, however, participate in an alternative means of experiencing and expressing their faith in God.

Looking at some of the newer and more controversial methods of spiritual engagement, the survey found that 4% had participated in a house church or simple church; 9% had been involved in a ministry that met in the marketplace; and 12% had engaged in spiritual activity on the Internet.

Pastors Accept House Churches

In a companion study conducted by The Barna Group among Senior Pastors of Protestant churches, two out of three pastors agreed that "house churches are legitimate Christian churches." Surprisingly, pastors from mainline churches were more likely than pastors from other Protestant congregations to consider house churches to be biblically defensible forms of church experience. Among the pastors least likely to support the legitimacy of house churches were pastors who earn more than $75,000 annually; African-American pastors; and pastors of charismatic or Pentecostal churches.

The views of Protestant pastors regarding house churches show that they assign both strengths and weaknesses to house churches. For instance, more than three-quarters of conventional church pastors (77%) contend that "house churches genuinely worship God." Two-thirds (66%) said "a house church might be a better spiritual fit for someone than a conventional local church." And three out of every five (60%) noted that "house churches produce genuine disciples of Christ."

However, less than half of all pastors of conventional churches said that they would ever recommend a house church to someone (40%). Also, only one out of three conventional church pastors (31%) believes that "house churches have sufficient spiritual accountability."

Paradoxically, only half (54%) of the Senior Pastors of conventional churches who believe that house churches are biblically legitimate forms of church said that they might ever recommend a house church to someone.

Issues with the Origins of Church Practices

The research parallels the findings of a controversial new book co-authored by researcher George Barna, entitled Pagan Christianity? Exploring the Roots of Our Christian Practices . In that book, Barna and co-author Frank Viola explain the origins of many common routines widely used in conventional churches, ranging from preaching to communion. The early Christians met almost exclusively in homes and had few of the trappings that characterize 21st-century churches and services. Many of the church habits in place today were not apostolic or biblical practices but are vestiges of pagan practices adopted by Christians in the third century or later.

Pagan Christianity? contends that most of today’s church practices have no biblical foundation, and in some cases, hinder people from having a genuine experience with God. With extensive footnotes and documentation, the book shows that the following church practices had little to do with scriptural mandate or apostolic application:

  • Church buildings were initially constructed under the Roman emperor Constantine, around 327. The early Christian church met in homes.
  • The pulpit was a piece of stagecraft borrowed from Greek culture in which professional speakers delivered monologues in public debates. There is no evidence that Jesus, the apostles, or other leaders in the early Church used a pulpit; it seems to have been introduced into Christian circles in the mid-third century.
  • The order of worship originated in the Roman Catholic Mass under the leadership of Pope Gregory in the sixth century.
  • Preaching a sermon to an audience was ushered into the church world late in the second century. Sermons were an extension of the activity of the Greek sophists, who had mastered the art of rhetorical oratory.
  • There were no pastors, as an official or director of a group of believers, until sometime in the second century. That was eventually furthered by the practice of ordination, which was based upon the prevailing Roman custom of appointing men to public office.
  • The biblical approach to "communion" or the "Lord’s Supper," was truncated late in the second century from a full, festive communal meal without clergy officiating to the presently common habit of having a sip of wine and morsel of bread (or juice and a wafer) under the guidance of a recognized clergyman.

    Pagan Christianity? also addresses a myriad of other practices, including tax-exempt status for churches, pews, stained glass windows, altar calls, the pastoral prayer, church bulletins, bishops, clergy attire, choirs, tithing, the collection plate, seminary training, infant baptism, the "sinner’s prayer," and funeral processions, among others.

    To find out more about Pagan Christianity? , or to order a copy of the book,
    click here.

    George Barna commented that the objective of the book is not to criticize churches, but to give people the freedom to re-think many modern church practices. "Often, people feel as if their worship and ministry are confined to what is routinely done because those patterns have a biblical basis or mandate," explained the author of more than three dozen books about faith and culture. "But when you research the origins of church practices, and study the practices of the early church, you discover that most of our current church practices have ancient cultural origins, with no biblical basis. As people seek a deeper relationship with God and other believers, the book encourages them to do so with the knowledge that the Bible describes a spiritual experience that relatively few Americans have known - a model that is more organic and in which every person functions as a priest of the living God."

    Early reviews of Pagan Christianity? have been divided between reviewers who appreciate the honest, painstakingly researched appraisal of church practices, and those who are incensed that the roots and biblical validity of so many common practices are questioned. "Whenever you challenge hallowed behaviors, controversy is the natural result," responded Barna. "Every believer must decide whether it is more important to follow biblical guidelines and examples or to instead maintain human traditions and preferences. If nothing else, Frank and I hope this book stimulates significant reflection and conversation about why the Church does what it does, what is the biblical model of the Church, and how we can be a more authentic representation of the Church that God envisions."

    About the Research

    This report is based upon two nationwide telephone surveys conducted by The Barna Group. One survey was a sample of 1005 adults, age 18 and older, conducted in December 2007 randomly selected from across the continental United States. The maximum margin of sampling error associated with the aggregate sample of adults is ±3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The other survey included interviews with 615 Senior Pastors of Protestant churches, randomly sampled from all Protestant churches in the continental states during December 2007. The maximum margin of sampling error associated with the aggregate sample is ±4.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Statistical weighting was used to calibrate the sample to known population percentages in relation to demographic variables. All interviews in both surveys were conducted via telephone, and multiple callbacks were made to each telephone number to provide a representative sample.

    The Barna Group, Ltd. (which includes its research division, The Barna Research Group) conducts primary research, produces media resources pertaining to spiritual development, and facilitates the healthy spiritual growth of leaders, children, families and Christian ministries. Located in Ventura, California, Barna has been conducting and analyzing primary research to understand cultural trends related to values, beliefs, attitudes and behaviors since 1984. If you would like to receive free e-mail notification of the release of each new, bi-monthly update on the latest research findings from The Barna Group, you may subscribe to this free service at the Barna website www.barna.org.

    © The Barna Group, Ltd, 2008.

    Copyright Disclaimer: All the information contained on the barna.org website is copyrighted by The Barna Group, Ltd., 1957 Eastman Ave. Ste B, Ventura, California 93003. No portion of this website (articles, graphs, charts, reviews, pictures, video clips, quotes, statistics, etc.) may be reproduced, retransmitted, disseminated, sold, distributed, published, edited, altered, changed, broadcast, circulated, or commercially exploited without the prior written permission from The Barna Group, Ltd.

  • More Trends and Stats from Mission America

    The following are excepts from a February 2008 Mission America Newsletter:

    Freshman Believe Unchanged from '04, a 2007 Campus Crusade survey finds 80% of college freshman believe religion and spirituality are important in their lives, and 75% believe in God. (One News Now 1/4/08)

    Spiritual Values in Collegians A UCLA study found college juniors are more likely to be engaged in a spiritual quest than when they first entered college as freshmen. The study showed 41.2% of freshmen in '04 reported they considered developing a meaningful philosophy of life "very important" or "essential." 3 years later in '07, 55.4% agreed. 48.7% of freshmen in '04 said "attaining inner harmony" is "very important" or "essential." This jumped to 62.6% by '07. The study found growth over the 3 years in spiritual values, such as integrating spirituality into their lives and becoming more loving persons. Despite the rise in spirituality, college students are not making it to religious services. Attendance drops from 43.7% in high school to 25.4% in college. (Christian Post 12/20/07)

    Myth vs. Reality Rainer Research reveals that 80% of high school students do not plan to leave the church once they graduate. Only 20% had preconceived notions about leaving. By and large, students do not flee church because they want to enjoy newfound freedom away from home; they do not have a deep desire to branch away from the church. (Outreach 1-2/08)

    Christian America 82% of Americans in '07 identified with a Christian religion, 51% Protestant, 5% "other Christian," 23% Roman Catholic and 3% another Christian faith, including 2% Mormon. 11% had no religious identity, and another 2% didn't answer. 62% of Americans are members of a church or synagogue. About a third attends once a week, with another 12% almost every week, with only 17% never attending. 56% say religion is very important vs. 17% who say it is not. 32% say religion is increasing its influence while 61% say it's losing it, with 7% saying it is unchanged or did not answer. (Gallup 12/24/07)

    Generic Christianity Commenting on recent findings, LifeWay Research's Ed Stetzer said, "We found a real openness to hearing about matters of faith, but the study also clearly documents...a generic 'big guy in the sky' view of God and a 'you believe what you believe, I believe what I believe' viewpoint on theology. People say, 'Who am I to judge?'" (BP News 1/9/08)

    More Charismatics In '97, 30% of adults claimed to be Pentecostal Christians compared to 36% in '07. While just 8% of the U.S. population is evangelical, 49% of evangelical adults fit the charismatic definition. 51% of all born-agains are charismatic as are 46% of all adults who attend a Protestant church. 23% of U.S. Protestant churches are charismatic congregations. 80% have a full-time, paid pastor and the average weekly adult attendance is 82, equivalent to other Protestant bodies. 36% of all U.S. Catholics are charismatic as are 7% of Southern Baptist and 6% of mainline churches. 65% of America's charismatic churches are predominantly African-American vs.16% of white Protestant congregations. (Barna Online 1/7/08)

    Kids Follow Parent Models 91% of kids want to help others, says a new Kid, Inc. study of 6- to 14- year olds. 58% chose volunteering over playing video games; 38% would rather see money for their gifts go to a worthy cause instead of receiving a present. When given a choice between participating on a sports team or a club that raises money for a worthy cause, 51% chose the fundraising club. Behavioral Associates' Robert Reiner said, "If a child's parents are interested in giving back, there is a chance that they will be interested, too." (PWB 12/21/07)

    Happiness People who attend religious services weekly or more are happier (43% very happy) than those who attend monthly or less (31%) and seldom or never (26%). Pew Research has found this correlation to be consistent over the years. The same pattern applies within all major religious denominations. (PWB 12/28/07)

    Religious Influence 27% of Americans would like to see organized religion have more influence on the U.S., 32% want less and nearly 40% want it to stay the same. In '01 30% wanted religion to have more influence vs. 22% less. (Outreach 1-2/08)

    Population The 1/1/08 population of America was projected to be 303,146,284 - up 2,842,103 or 0.9% from 1/1/07. In January '08, the US is expected to register 1 birth every 8 seconds and 1 death every 11 seconds. International migration will 1 be person every 30 seconds. The net result: a total US population increase of 1 person every 13 seconds. The world population is more than 6.6 billion. (U.S. and World Population Clock 12/31/07)

    Population Sustained For the first time in 35 years, the U.S. fertility rate has climbed high enough to sustain a stable population, solidifying the nation's unique status among industrialized countries. The overall fertility rate increased 2% between '05 and '06, nudging the average number of babies being born to each woman to 2.1. While unwelcome news to some environmentalists, the so-called "replacement rate" is generally considered desirable by demographers and sociologists because it means a country is producing enough young people to replace and support aging workers without population growth being so high it taxes national resources. Europe, Japan and other industrialized countries long have had fertility rates far below the replacement level, creating the prospect of labor shortages and loss of cultural identity. In contrast, many developing nations' birth rates far exceed the replacement rate, fueling poverty and social unrest. Experts speculate the reasons for the U.S fertility rate are a complex mix of factors, including lower levels of birth control use than in other developed countries, widely held religious values that encourage childbearing, social conditions that make it easier for women to work and have families, and a growing Hispanic population. (Tampa Bay Online 12/25/07)

    Teens Financially Illiterate Only 34% of teens know how to balance a checkbook, and 29% are already in debt, according to a Charles Schwab Teens and Money survey. David Ramsey notes that in '06, high school seniors scored an average of 52% on a basic financial literacy survey, and 19% of all bankruptcies are filed by people under age 25. (One News Now 1/3/08)

    UK Surpasses U.S. Living standards in Britain are set to rise above those in America for the first time since the 19th century, according to a report by the respected Oxford Economics consultancy. It says the GDP per head in Britain will be 23,500 pounds in '08 vs. 23,250 pounds in the U.S., reflecting both the strength of the pound against the dollar and the UK economy's record run of growth and rising incomes since the early '90s. (TheSourceDaily 1/8/07)

    Is Marriage Necessary 44% of Americans ages 20 to 69 believe marriage is not necessary in order to have a committed, fulfilling, life-long relationship, reports a Zogby/AOL poll. Marriage Savers' president Mike McManus finds the number shocking. He says, "People who are married live longer, they're healthier, they're happier; they're wealthier. A man who's single, for whatever reason, will live 10 years less than a married man; a woman, about 4 years less." Many fear if they marry they'll end up divorced, and the antidote is to cohabit. But Rutgers University's National Marriage Project research finds couples who live together before marriage are 46% more likely to divorce and significantly more likely to experience domestic violence within their relationships. McManus says, "Churches really aren't very 'marriage-minded' - they're 'wedding-minded.' They are equipped to be able to help couples have weddings, but they really don't know how to build marriages." (OneNewsNow 1/8/07)

    America's Unchurched are willing to hear what people have to say about Christianity, but a majority also sees the church as a place full of hypocrites, finds a LifeWay Research study. 72% of those interviewed think the church "is full of hypocrites." Yet 71% said they believe Jesus "makes a positive difference in a person's life" and 78% would "be willing to listen" to someone who wanted to share what they believed about Christianity. While 64% think "the Christian religion is relevant and viable for today," 72% of un-churched adults believe God, a higher or supreme being actually exists. Only 48% agree there is only one God as described in the Bible and 61% believe the God of the Bible is no different from gods or spiritual beings depicted in non-Christian religions. Up from 17% in '04, 22% of Americans say they never go to church (highest ever recorded by the General Social Survey). 79% of unchurched Americans think Christianity today is more about organized religion than about loving God and loving people; 86% believe they can have a good relationship with God without being involved in church. 44% said Christians "get on my nerves." Yet, 89% of the unchurched have at least 1 close Christian friend. And while turned off by church, 78% are willing to listen to someone who wants to talk about their Christian beliefs. The number rose to 89% among adults ages 18-29. Additionally, 78% said they would enjoy an honest conversation with a friend about religious and spiritual beliefs, even if they disagreed. Only 28% think Christians they know talk to them too much about their beliefs. (BP News 1/9/08)

    Americans Believe An Ellison Research study finds 90% of Americans feel the law should support religious groups renting public property, such as a public school gym or a library room, for meetings if non-religious groups are allowed to do so. 89% say it should be legal for a public school teacher to permit a "moment of silence" for prayer or contemplation for all students during class time. 88% believe it should be legal for public school teachers to wear religious symbols during class time. 87% say voluntary student-led prayers at public school events should be legal. 83% believe the display of a nativity scene on city property should be legal. 79% say it should be legal to display a copy of the Ten Commandments inside a court building. (Ellison Research 1/10/08)

    Fast Facts:

    • 86% of people say it is extremely important that their Bible translation is easy to understand.
    • 83% of people say it is extremely important that their Bible translation is good for serious study.
    • 74% of people say the key reason for using their primary Bible is "I like the way that it reads."
    • Some 30% of South Korea's population now identifies themselves as Christian.
    • Service industries make up about 55% of all economic activity in the U.S.
    • 86,000,000 people died in wars fought from 1900 to 1989; that's 100 people every hour for 90 years.
    • Since 1975, 300 daily newspapers have ceased publication.
    • Total U.S. newspaper circulation has declined 2.6% in just the last 6 months.
    • 60% of the world's online gambling traffic runs through servers operated by the Mohawk Indian tribe.
    • 10,000 baby boomers will become eligible for Social Security everyday for the next 20 years.
    • The Ten Commandments are engraved on each lower portion of each door of the U.S. Supreme Court courtroom.
    • Inside the courtroom, the Ten Commandments are displayed right above where the Supreme Court judges sit.
    • Every session of Congress begins with a prayer by a preacher whose salary has been paid by taxpayers since 1777.
    • John Jay, the very first Supreme Court Justice, said: "Americans should select and prefer Christians as their rulers."
    • Nearly 100 million people in the U.S. haven't found their way to a church.
    • 41% of all U.S. adults attend a Christian church each week.
    • 59% of self-proclaimed Christians in America attend church each week.
    • 60.7% of Americans believe a Presidential candidate should be a person of faith.
    • 40% of baby boomers want peace and quiet from their active lives.
    • Almost 1 out of 10 U.S. households is renting a storage space.
    • 45% of U.S. households give to religious organizations, while 60% give to secular organizations and 37% give to both.
    • 55 million Americans have disabilities. 24.8% are mobility limitations, 24.8% limited hand use, 16.4% cognitive disabilities, 11.9% vision, 3.7% speech/language difficulties.
    • 40% of people with disabilities conduct business and personal activities online.
    • 50% of disabled U.S. adults say the Internet has significantly improved their quality of life, vs. just 27% of non-disabled adults.

    Information compiled and edited by Gary Foster, President of Gary D Foster Consulting, a firm that assists Christian ministries and product companies in solving management, marketing, donor/customer service and product development problems. Contact Gary at: 419.238.4082, GFosterCns@rmi.net or go to www.GaryDFoster.com.

    Teen Trend Predictions for 2008

    Teen Trend Predictions for 2008

    Audrey Barrick, Christian Post Reporter, wrote an article about trends among teens.  The part that  struck me most was the following trend, and I quote:

    There will be a rising cynicism toward organized religion among teens

    While the Millennials do not necessarily harbor negative feelings toward Jesus, they are increasingly disconnecting from the traditional institutions of organized religion. Emancipating themselves from the institutions of their parents, Christian teens will increasingly reject the established, structured churches of their parents’ generation to create newer, more unstructured approaches to living out the spiritual dimension of their lives, exploring options ranging from internet message board communities of faith to gathering with their friends over lattes at their local Starbucks to talk about spiritual things. As evangelistic atheism becomes more prevalent, as evidenced by the number of atheist-authored books recently appearing on the bestsellers list, it will find increasingly fertile ground among teens disillusioned by organized religion.

    This seems consistent with other research and suggests a need to develop new methods and strategies for reaching teens.

    See also Another interesting article entitled

    New National Poll: Nearly 40 Percent of “Ethically Prepared” Teens Believe Lying, Cheating, or Violence Necessary to Succeed

    Wednesday, February 20, 2008

    Results

    Winston Churchill stated:

    "No matter how beautiful the strategy, one must occasionally look at the results"

    Tuesday, February 19, 2008

    Jackson Youth CO-OP

    "Check your Ego and your Logo at the door"

    An independent non-profit organization (not a part of any church or other national or local ministry) designed to support local church and parachurch youth ministries to make disciples among youth in the Jackson Metro Area. It is our intent to support, equip and minister to those who are ministering to youth rather than to minister to youth directly.

    • Facilitate cooperative efforts among ministries
      • Raise awareness of Youth Issue(s) within community through media
      • Identify and share what is working and what is not working.
      • Strategic planning to identify gaps/needs/under-served population segments
      • Prayer support
      • Cooperate and/or Pool resources to do things that a single ministry might find difficult to do.
      • Community wide events/Speakers/Concerts
      • Community wide research
      • Referral Service for those wanting to get involved
      • Referral Service for those needing specialized ministry -i.e. crisis pregnancy, adoption, counseling,

    • Equip local youth ministers/youth workers to better minister to youth.
      • Provide training to youth workers ranging from full time youth ministers to Sunday School teachers and other lay volunteers. Perhaps even include some sort of "certification" saying that they have completed certain training.
        • Seminars
        • Classes
        • CD's/DVD's
        • Online training
      • Provide training to parents about how to disciple their kids, how to have a family quiet time
      • Provide training/counseling to parents/youth workers on dealing with specific issues
        • Drugs/Alcohol
        • Sex/pregnancy
        • Internet/Media
        • Dating
      • Provide counseling for youth workers
      • Provide materials for youth workers/ministries
        • Personal Self assessment - Where am I in terms of my spiritual maturity? To be used by youth workers or disciples
        • Ministry Self assessment - How effective is my ministry/youth group when measured objectively? May include tools for self administered polling of group
        • Disciple Assessment - What are some objective standards that I can use to assess the spiritual maturity of my disciple/child? Are they doing as well as I think they are?
      • Provide books/cd's etc for purchase from other sources either via web or local bookstore.

    • Periodic Assessment - Bring in Barna to do initial assessment of area and then follow up each year to track progress.
    • Long Term Possibilities
      • Provide technical support for the development of websites, pod casts, etc.
      • Provide youth worker screening service which would include background checks, written "assessments" (tests) and interviews. This could give some smaller ministries the ability to screen workers in ways that might otherwise be beyond their capabilities.

    Potential Locations:

    • Old Broadmoor Baptist Building (Wesley Seminary)
    • Various locations around town - Coffee shops, restaurants, homes - depending on size of group and nature of class
    • Warehouse - for office only

    Staffing:

    • Director: Forrest Berry
    • Executive Director - Dan Hall
    • Secretary/Asst - Amanda Paige Whittington
    • Teachers - Dan, Various local pastors/ministers/college profs/seminary profs

    Possible Model for Training Program:

    Monday, February 18, 2008

    Management - Functions of

    Theoretical scope

    Mary Parker Follett (1868–1933), who wrote on the topic in the early twentieth century, defined management as "the art of getting things done through people".[2] One can also think of management functionally, as the action of measuring a quantity on a regular basis and of adjusting some initial plan; or as the actions taken to reach one's intended goal. This applies even in situations where planning does not take place. From this perspective, Frenchman Henri Fayol[3] considers management to consist of five functions:

    1. planning
    2. organizing
    3. leading
    4. co-ordinating
    5. controlling
    Basic functions of management

    Management operates through various functions, often classified as planning, organizing, leading/motivating and controlling.

    • Planning: deciding what needs to happen in the future (today, next week, next month, next year, over the next five years, etc.) and generating plans for action.
    • Organizing: making optimum use of the resources required to enable the successful carrying out of plans.
    • Leading/Motivating: exhibiting skills in these areas for getting others to play an effective part in achieving plans.
    • Controlling: monitoring -- checking progress against plans, which may need modification based on feedback.
    Formation of the business policy
    • The mission of the business is its most obvious purpose -- which may be, for example, to make soap.
    • The objective of the business refers to the ends or activity at which a certain task is aimed.
    • The business's policy is a guide that stipulates rules, regulations and objectives, and may be used in the managers' decision-making. It must be flexible and easily interpreted and understood by all employees.
    • The business's strategy refers to the plan of action that it is going to take, as well as the resources that it will be using, to achieve its mission and objectives. It is a guideline to managers, stipulating how they ought to use best the factors of production to the business's advantage. Initially, it could help the managers decide on what type of business they want to form.

    How to implement policies and strategies
    • All policies and strategies must be discussed with all managerial personnel and staff.
    • Managers must understand where and how they can implement their policies and strategies.
    • A plan of action must be devised for each department.
    • Policies and strategies must be reviewed regularly.
    • Contingency plans must be devised in case the environment changes.
    • Assessments of progress ought to be carried out regularly by top-level managers.
    • A good environment is required within the business.

    The development of policies and strategies
    • The missions, objectives, strengths and weaknesses of each department must be analysed to determine their roles in achieving the business's mission.
    • The forecasting method develops a reliable picture of the business's future environment.
    • A planning unit must be created to ensure that all plans are consistent and that policies and strategies are aimed at achieving the same mission and objectives.
    • Contingency plans must be developed, just in case.

    All policies must be discussed with all managerial personnel and staff that is required in the execution of any departmental policy.

    Where policies and strategies fit into the planning process
    • They give mid- and lower-level managers a good idea of the future plans for each department.
    • A framework is created whereby plans and decisions are made.
    • Mid- and lower-level management may add their own plans to the business's strategic ones.

    Thursday, February 14, 2008

    The American Church in Crisis

    The following article, The American Church in Crisis, is/was located at:
    http://www.christianitytoday.com/outreach/articles/americanchurchcrisis.html

    Special Report: Attendance is down. The picture is bleak. New research reveals startling and sobering facts. What do they mean for you, your church and Christianity in America?
    by Rebecca Barnes and Lindy Lowry
    from Outreach magazine, May/June 2006

    Sundays are quiet in today's America. Banks and businesses are closed. Rush-hour traffic takes a rest. Most Americans have the day off. But the reason for the "holi"day is no longer about anything holy for a growing number of people who don't attend weekend worship services.

    Most of us suspect that fewer people are attending church regularly. We need look no farther than our neighbors' driveways on a Sunday morning. And daily, we're confronted with our increasingly individualistic, secular and narcissistic culture. Those in professional church work have heard the rumors: Membership in mainline churches is steadily declining. Organic churches are on the rise with people trading sanctuaries for living rooms. Even online faith communities are growing. But do we know what's really happening in the traditional Church? And to what extent that will impact the future of Christianity in America?

    For this special report, we talked to prominent researchers, missiologists and church leaders to identify church attendance trends in America, and to glean wisdom and learnings from the information. Special thanks go to church planting director and researcher Dave Olson (theamericanchurch.org), who generously provided his research. The facts he offers are sobering, as the title of this special report suggests, but they are nonetheless invaluable for church leaders of every denomination, congregation size, location, ethnicity and economic class.

    We lay out seven facts about the American Church that will likely surprise you. You'll hear from a host of church leaders, including Bill Hybels, Kirbyjon Caldwell, George Barna, Bob Coy, David Anderson and Wayne Cordeiro. Plus, we talk to author/apologist Josh McDowell about the growing faith crisis affecting the next generation. We hope the information and insights will spur you to discover what they mean for your church, the unchurched in your community and the Church as a whole. We have a map—perhaps it will help guide the next steps of our journey.

    To be sure, church attendance is a moving target. However, researchers continue to ask questions and apply their methodologies to assess the realities of church and faith in America. In the words of church planter and researcher Dave Olson, we hope to "paint an accurate and realistic picture of the complexities to help our churches have an influence in the future."

    Here, we explore seven discoveries about the American Church and what they tell us about our ever-diversifying landscape and culture. What do these facts mean for your church?

    7 STARTLING FACTS: AN UP CLOSE LOOK AT CHURCH ATTENDANCE IN AMERICA

    1. Less than 20% of Americans regularly attend church—half of what the pollsters report.

    While Gallup polls and other statisticians have turned in the same percentage—about 40% of the population—of average weekend church attendees for the past 70 years, a different sort of research paints quite a disparate picture of how many Americans attend a local church on any given Sunday.

    Initially prompted to discover how church plants in America were really doing, Olson, director of church planting for the Evangelical Covenant Church (covchurch.org), began collecting data in the late '80s, gradually expanding his research to encompass overall attendance trends in the Church. In his study, he tracked the annual attendance of more than 200,000 individual Orthodox Christian churches (the accepted U.S. church universe is 330,000). To determine attendance at the remaining 100,000-plus Orthodox Christian churches, he used statistical models, which included multiplying a church's membership number by the denomination's membership-to-attendance ratio.

    The Numbers

    His findings reveal that the actual rate of church attendance from head counts is less than half of the 40% the pollsters report. Numbers from actual counts of people in Orthodox Christian churches (Catholic, mainline and evangelical) show that in 2004, 17.7% of the population attended a Christian church on any given weekend.

    Another study published in 2005 in The Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion by sociologists C. Kirk Hadaway and Penny Long Marler—known for their scholarly research on the Church—backs up his findings. Their report reveals that the actual number of people worshipping each week is closer to Olson's 17.7% figure—52 million people instead of the pollster-reported 132 million (40%).

    "We knew that over the past 30 to 40 years, denominations had increasingly reported a decline in their numbers," Marler says. "Even a still-growing denomination like the Southern Baptist Convention had reported slowed growth. Most of the mainline denominations were all reporting a net loss over the past 30 years. And at the same time, the Gallup polls had remained stable. It didn't make sense."

    The Halo Effect

    What Hadaway and Marler, along with Mark Chaves, author of the "National Congregations Study," discovered was at play is what researchers call "the halo effect"—the difference between what people tell pollsters and what people actually do. Americans tend to over-report socially desirable behavior like voting and attending church and under-report socially undesirable behavior like drinking.

    Gallup Poll Editor in Chief Frank Newport agrees that the halo effect factors in to poll results. During a Gallup telephone survey of a random sampling of about 1,000 Americans nationwide, interviewers ask respondents questions such as, "In the last seven days, did you attend a church service, excluding weddings and funerals?" to determine their church-going habits.

    "When people try to reconstruct their own behavior, particularly more frequently occurring on-and-off behavior, it is more difficult, especially in a telephone interview scenario," Newport says. But he stands behind Gallup's 40% figure: "I've been reviewing [U.S. church attendance] carefully," he says. "No matter how we ask the question to people, we get roughly 40% of Americans who present themselves as regular church attendees." He adds, however, that if you were to freeze the United States on any Sunday morning, you may find fewer than 40% of the country's adults actually in churches.

    "Although about 40% of Americans are regular church attendees, it doesn't necessarily mean 40% are in church on any given Sunday," he explains. "The most regular church attendee gets sick or sleeps in. The other reason may be people who tell us they go to church but are worshipping in non-traditional ways, such as small groups, people meeting in gyms or school libraries."

    A Disconnect

    In another study surveying the growth of U.S. Protestants, Marler and Hadaway discovered that while the majority of people they interviewed don't belong to a local church, they still identify with their church roots. "Never mind the fact that they attend church less than 12 times a year," Marler observes. "We estimate that 78 million Protestants are in that place. Ask most pastors what percentage of inactive members they have—they'll say anything from 40-60%."

    Even with a broader definition of church attendance, classifying a regular attendee as someone who shows up at least three out of every eight Sundays, only 23-25% of Americans would fit this category. Olson notes that an additional million church attendees would increase the percentage from 17.7% to only 18%. "You'd have to find 80 million more people that churches forgot to count to get to 40%."

    Clearly, a disconnect between what Americans say and what they actually do has created a sense of a resilient church culture when, in fact, it may not exist.

    2. American church attendance is steadily declining.

    In 1990, 20.4% of the population attended an Orthodox Christian church on any given weekend. In 2000, that percentage dropped to 18.7% and to 17.7% by 2004. Olson explains that while church attendance numbers have stayed about the same from 1990 to 2004, the U.S. population has grown by 18.1%—more than 48 million people. "So even though the number of attendees is the same, our churches are not keeping up with population growth," he says.

    Well-known church researcher and author Thom Rainer notes that the failure of churches to keep up with the population growth is one of the Church's greatest issues heading into the future. In a 2002 survey of 1,159 U.S. churches, Rainer's research team found that only 6% of the churches were growing—he defines growth as not only increasing in attendance, but also increasing at a pace faster than its community's population growth rate. "Stated inversely, 94% of our churches are losing ground in the communities they serve," he says.

    Denominational Differences

    A breakdown of overall attendance percentages by church type shows decreases across the board in evangelical, mainline and Catholic churches.

    The most significant drop in attendance came at the expense of the Catholic Church, which experienced an 11% decrease in its attendance percentage from 2000 to 2004. Next, and not far behind were mainline churches, which saw a 10% percentage decline. Evangelicals experienced the smallest drop at 1%.

    Though scholars are hesitant to definitively acknowledge a decline, they do say that attendance is not increasing: "There's no good evidence to suggest that overall church attendance has gone up in the recent decade," Chaves says, adding that he believes there has been a decline. He cites the watershed book Bowling Alone (Simon & Schuster) by Harvard sociologist Robert D. Putnam as his primary reasoning.

    "I think church attendance is a close cousin to the other kinds of activities Putnam says Americans are doing alone—indicating that Americans have become increasingly disconnected from family and friends," Chaves says. "So if all those areas are going down and church attendance isn't, that would be odd."

    He identifies various implications declining attendance may have for church leaders: "If this is the reality, then I see a trend toward people being less involved, while maintaining a connection to the church. Maybe a pastor used to be able to count on seeing someone every week, but what's now happening is that people's lives are busier and they're attending more infrequently. So church leaders can't count on these same people to teach Sunday school, serve on committees, etc."

    Contradictory Research

    Recent data from The Barna Group (barna.org) indicates just the opposite. Church attendance is actually growing, company President George Barna says—climbing slowly from 1996's 37% to 47% in 2006. His research shows that other core religious behaviors are also up. For example, Bible reading increased from 40% in 2000 to 47% in 2006.

    "The data shows the number of unchurched people is unchanged—76 million adults," he says. "And 47% of Americans reported to us that in the last seven days, they attended a church service, excluding weddings and funerals." His research indicates that attendance at house churches has also spiked. That may explain, Barna says, why these core religious behaviors are up. "Nevertheless, people are seeking God."

    Ed Stetzer, missiologist and director of the Center for Missional Research at the North American Mission Board (namb.net) of the Southern Baptist Convention, has found similar evidence of spiritual behavior occurring outside church walls. He recently finished a study on alternative faith communities, and found that a growing number of people are finding Christian discipleship and community in places other than their local churches. The study found that 24.5% of Americans now say their primary form of spiritual nourishment is meeting with a small group of 20 or less people every week.

    "About 6 million people meet weekly with a small group and never or rarely go to church," Stetzer says. "There is a significant movement happening."

    3. Only one state is outpacing its population growth.

    Hawaii, where 13.8% of the state's population (1.3 million) regularly attends church, was the only state where church attendance grew faster than its population growth from 2000 to 2004. However, church attendance in Arkansas, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Tennessee—all of which have higher percentages of church attendees than Hawaii—was close to keeping up with population growth in the respective states (see U.S. map on page 50).

    In Hawaii, 6.3% of the population attended an evangelical church in 2004; mainline denominations accounted for 1.8%; and 5.7% regularly worshipped in Catholic congregations.

    A few states break from regional attendance trends. Texas—in the middle of the Bible Belt and home to more than 17 of the country's largest churches—saw only 18% of its population (22.5 million) attend church on any given weekend in 2004, compared to surrounding states Oklahoma (22%), Louisiana (28%) and Arkansas (25%). And Florida (14.1%) had the lowest percentage of the Southern region (averaging 23%). Both Texas and Florida saw population growth (2000 to 2004) that was twice the national average.

    Olson notes that states with very diverse cultures tend to have lower attendance numbers than the states surrounding them. "Most of our churches know how to address only one culture," he says.

    A closer look at the states only found more decline between 1990 and 2000. Church attendance declined in more than two-thirds of all U.S. counties: Slightly more than 2,300 counties declined, and 795 increased.

    4. Mid-sized churches are shrinking; the smallest and largest churches are growing.

    While America's churches as a whole did not keep up with population growth from 1994 to 2004, the country's smallest (attendance 1-49) and largest churches (2,000-plus) did (see graph on page 52). During that period, the smallest churches grew 16.4%; the largest grew 21.5%, exceeding the national population growth of 12.2%. But mid-sized churches (100-299)—the average size of a Protestant church in America is 124—declined 1%. What were the reasons for the decline?

    "The best way I can describe it is that a lot of people believe they're upgrading to first class when they go to a larger church," Olson says. "It seems highly likely that some of the people in those mid-sized churches are the ones leaving and going to the larger churches."

    Stetzer agrees and adds that because today's large churches emphasize small groups and community, hoping to create a small-church feel, they offer the best of both worlds.

    "There are multiple expectations on mid-sized churches that they can't meet—programs, dynamic music, quality youth ministries," he says. "We've created a church consumer culture."

    As president of the Bridgeleader Network, David Anderson, senior pastor and founder of Bridgeway Community Church in Columbia, Md., has consulted with church leaders nationwide. In his work, he has observed that mid-sized congregations tend to lose the evangelistic focus they once had, and instead adopt what he calls a "club mentality."

    "You have just enough people not to be missional anymore," he explains. "You don't have to grow anymore to sustain your budget."

    As for why the smallest churches have kept up, Shawn McMullen, author of the newly released Unleashing the Potential of the Smaller Church (Standard), notes that smaller churches cultivate an intimacy not easily found in larger churches. "In an age when human interaction is being supplanted by modern technology, many younger families are looking for a church that offers community, closeness and intergenerational relationships," he says.

    Olson points out that for a church of 50 or less, the only place to go is up. "They have a relatively small downside and a big upside. A church of 25 can't decline by 24 and still be on the radar. But it can grow by 200."

    5. Established churches—40 to 190 years old—are, on average, declining.

    All churches started between 1810 and 1960 (excluding the 1920s) declined in attendance from 2003 to 2004. The greatest attendance decrease in that period (-1.6%) came from churches begun in the 1820s, followed by the 1940s (-1.5%).

    The numbers climb to the plus side in the 1970s, with churches between 30 and 40 years old showing a slight .3% increase. The percentage goes up significantly for congregations launched in the 1980s (1.7%) and 1990s (3%).

    Established churches in decline are suffering from a leadership crisis, says Kirbyjon Caldwell, senior pastor of Windsor Village United Methodist Church in Houston. While his church is 50 years old, Caldwell says he has been there 25 years and in effect has made a "DNA change." The church has grown from a struggling congregation of 25 to 7,100 under his charge.

    Reversing the decline, he says, was about the leaders of the church—both clergy and laity—deciding to redefine the congregation and meet the needs of the community.

    Bob Coy, senior pastor and founder of Calvary Chapel Fort Lauderdale, points to a different crisis for established churches—one of relevancy, especially in light of today's young people searching for real truth and reasons for actions. "The emptiness of yesterday's liturgy has got to become relevant," Coy says. "The next generation is screaming for a relationship with God."

    The declining numbers send a message to church leaders content with only building their own churches, Olson says: "I hear people say, 'Why do we need new churches? Why don't we help our established churches do better?' or 'Don't we have enough churches?' If we keep doing the same things, we'll continue to have the same results—decline. Established churches are the base, and new churches build on top of that. Using established churches to keep up with population growth is just not going to work."

    6. The increase in churches is only 1/4 of what's needed to keep up with population growth.

    Between 2000 and 2004, the net gain (the number of new churches minus the closed churches) in the number of evangelical churches was 5,452, but mainline and Catholic churches closed more than they started for a net loss of 2,200, leaving an overall net gain of 3,252 for all Orthodox Christian churches. "In this decade, approximately 3,000 churches closed every year; while more churches were started, only 3,800 survived," Olson explains. In the 21st century, the net gain in churches has amounted to only 800 each year.

    10,000 More Churches Needed

    Perhaps most telling is the fact that from 2000 to 2004, a net gain of 13,024 churches was necessary to keep up with the U.S. population growth. In reality, that means rather than growing with the population, the Church incurred a deficit of almost 10,000 churches.

    The gap is a serious one for Christianity in America, as research and studies show that church plants are the most effective means of evangelism and church growth. "More evangelism happens through church planting than megachurches," Anderson says. He urges leaders to plant multicultural, missional churches.

    Although ultimately, America will continue to see a great dying off of churches, Stetzer says he is encouraged to see a renewed interest in missiology and Christology, as well as churches that are striving to change themselves. "They're asking what a biblical church would look like," he says. But he advises church planters to customize their church to their community rather than copy an existing model.

    "What's going to make an effective church plant in their community depends on what their community looks like," he explains. "Far too many pastors plant their church in their heads and not in their community."

    Olson encourages churches, regardless of their size or expansion strategy, to either plant a church or work with other congregations to plant a church every five years.

    Many church plants of the last five years are intentionally smaller than those of the 1990s, he observes, because the younger generation is opting for smaller churches that offer a more intimate experience. "So we need to realize that if churches are going to be smaller, we'll need to start more of them to have the same impact."

    7. In 2050, the percentage of the U.S. population attending church will be almost half of what it was in 1990.

    So what is the future of the American Church? Does declining attendance mean declining influence? If present trends continue, the percentage of the population that attends church in 2050 is estimated to be at almost half of 1990's attendance—a drop from 20.4% to 11.7%. Olson's projections for the years leading up to 2050 are less than encouraging. He estimates a drop to 16.6% in 2010, and 15.4% in 2020.

    He notes that while church attendance is projected to increase from 50 million in 1990 to 60 million in 2050, because the U.S. Census estimates that America will grow from 248 million in 1990 to 520 million in 2050, the Church can't keep up with population growth if it stays on its current course.

    The prognosis doesn't discourage Anderson. "It encourages me that the harvest is greater," he says. "I'm somewhat comforted by the idea that Americans have left dead churches."

    Caldwell echoes Anderson's positive outlook: "If anything, this information causes me to get fired up about what I can do to reverse these trends."

    Coy, too, sees the projections as a call to action for church leaders: "If we've given the impression that church is an option, maybe we're the ones who are at fault," he says. But church attendance is only the beginning, he adds. "We have to get serious and begin to live it every day."

    Clearly, the future looks less than bright for the Church in America; nevertheless, countless stories of transformed lives remind us that God is using, and wants to continue to use, the 330,000 U.S. Orthodox Christian congregations to draw others to Him and strengthen believers for His work in a hurting world. In the words of the late author Henri Nouwen, the Church maintains the vital connection to Christ:

    "Listen to the Church," he writes in Show Me the Way (Crossroad). "I know that isn't a popular bit of advice at a time and in a country where the church is frequently seen more as an 'obstacle' in the way rather than as the 'way' to Jesus. Nevertheless, I'm profoundly convinced that the greatest spiritual danger for our times is the separation of Jesus from the Church. The Church is the body of the Lord. Without Jesus, there can be no Church; and without the Church, we cannot stay united with Jesus. I've yet to meet anyone who has come closer to Jesus by forsaking the Church. To listen to the Church is to listen to the Lord of the Church."

    Rebecca Barnes, a freelance writer based in Louisville, Ky., frequently contributes to OUTREACH. Currently, she's at work on an article about the growing house church movement for our next issue. Lindy Lowry is editor of OUTREACH.

    For a detailed explanation of the methodology behind the facts and statistics in this report, visit outreachmagazine.com. Information about individual PowerPoint presentations on church attendance in the nation, all 50 states and the 80 largest metropolitan areas are available at theamericanchurch.org.

    Insights for Crisis: Bill Hybels
    As founding and senior pastor of Willow Creek Community Church in South Barrington, Ill. (willowcreek.org), Bill Hybels leads one of the largest and most influential churches in North America. To train church leaders, Hybels and his colleagues founded the Willow Creek Association in 1991, which now includes more than 11,600 churches nationwide.

    I believe churches that are seeing a decline in attendance need a new vision—one that is clear and purposeful. We train church leaders all over the world, and we always say that if you can change a church leader, you can change a church; and if you can change a church, you can change a community, a state, a nation and, ultimately, the world.

    But we don't talk much about church growth. We talk about churches reaching their full redemptive potential. Not every church can grow numerically. But that doesn't mean we can't attempt each year to do a better job of living out Acts 2 values.

    Ask yourself: Is my church's concern for the poor increasing? Are we trying to bridge racial divides? Are we responding to the AIDS pandemic? Are we working to overcome systems that oppress people? Asking ourselves these questions and responding to them is part of what it means to be a redemptive faith community.

    I continue to see and hear about churches asking these questions, so I'm not convinced the Church is in a downward spiral of any kind. It's possible some folks are trying various alternatives to the typical church gathering, but I fully believe that will gradually work itself out. The many teachings of Scripture are quite clear that professing Christians need to gather in local fellowships and not just attend church, but be the Church—to each other and to our community.

    Less church attendance doesn't necessarily mean that people are less dedicated to knowing Christ or loving their families. To me, these are pace-of-life issues. The number of scheduled activities has bled way over into Sunday. We have people at Willow Creek who 15 years ago would be in church 50 weeks a year, simply because their lives allowed that kind of schedule. Now, baseball and soccer games are on Sunday mornings, and a lot of student activities happen over weekends.

    So do we as church leaders say to people, "You're being bad parents"? I find that parents are generally bending over backwards to raise good kids. Do we warn them about inconsistency? It's complex. Less church attendance is an American culture issue.

    Insights for Crisis: Kirbyjon Caldwell
    Kirbyjon Caldwell is the senior pastor at Windsor Village United Methodist Church in Houston (kingdombuilder.com). Appointed to lead a congregation of 25 members in 1982, Caldwell has seen it grow to more than 7,000, becoming the largest United Methodist church in the nation and a model of holistic ministry.

    When I was growing up, you could make the argument that Christian faith had a monopoly on society. It wasn't just on Sunday. When someone talked about the Lord on Monday, you knew which Lord, which God they were talking about. Now that's not the case. We're no longer a monopoly. Christianity is now in a competitive situation.

    But for any local church, the real competition today is television, the Internet, shopping malls and other social options. The culture offers so many alternatives. Culture—not the "church across town"—is the local church's primary competitor.

    We're losing ground. But this is not the time to say, "Woe are we." I believe this is an opportunity to really show up and make a difference for the Kingdom in Jesus' name. I don't care what their socio—economic status is—people are looking for hope for tomorrow, healing from yesterday and a home for today.

    Our churches don't necessarily have to adapt who we are, but what we do. We must intentionally identify, predict and meet the needs of people—or else decline. It's a basic business and spiritual principle: When you don't adjust your methodology and strategy, you will lose market share—for pastors, that means members.

    The best way for our churches to grow is for members to be so excited about what God is doing through their church that they want to tell others about it. Leaders, be they clergy or laity, have to decide: We will make a Kingdom impact in our community.

    Insights for Crisis: George Barna
    George Barna founded The Barna Group (barna.org) to research and analyze American culture and create resources designed to facilitate moral and spiritual transformation. His latest book, Revolution (Tyndale), explores a paradigm shift he believes is happening in the ways a growing number of committed Christians are experiencing and expressing their faith apart from the institutional church.

    We're living in a time where spirituality and faith are hot. But it doesn't necessarily mean they're deep. In the last 25 years, I've studied and worked with thousands of local churches. I saw the decline, both in attendance and discipleship, and started doing research to figure out if anybody's life is being genuinely transformed.

    Our research revealed that God is still active in the lives of millions of people. But among the people whose lives have been radically touched by God, the transformation was typically happening outside the local church. That helps explain why we have millions of people who want to be part of the Church—capital "C"—but fewer and fewer who are interested in the church—small "c."

    These "Revolutionaries"—by definition, their faith is the highest priority in their lives—are seeking diverse and alternative forms of church, through affinity groups, homeschooling, house churches, the Internet and marketplace ministries.

    We estimate that the percentage of Americans who express and experience their faith through the local church will drop from 70% in 2000 to about 30-35% in 2025. And the percentage of people experiencing their faith through an alternative faith-based community will increase from 5% in 2000 to 30-35% in 2025.

    This revolution of faith is happening. Pastors should try to find a way for their church to cooperate with it. Whether that happens inside a building, at Starbucks or on the basketball court is irrelevant. Transformation is more about the commitment of your heart than where you hang out on Sunday morning.

    Insights for Crisis: Bob Coy
    As founding and senior pastor of Florida's Calvary Chapel Fort Lauderdale (calvaryftl.org), Bob Coy leads a growing and multicultural congregation of 18,000 people. Since planting the church 20 years ago, Coy has focused on discipleship and seeing true transformation.

    I've never been impressed with our numbers. Even the larger churches in this country have not made the impact they think they have. I think most of us know that we're not changing the world.

    So what do we do now? I believe we have to get serious about what God has called us to do—and be seen as a place that's doing, not just saying.

    I believe we need to mobilize and ask ourselves some hard questions: What is our church doing in the downtown city? Is there a village in Africa where people are dying of AIDS? Are we just building big buildings? Jesus challenged us to pick up the cross, and it seems everyone wants a balsa wood cross with rhinestones. Emerging generations are looking for relevance; they know the difference between attending and being active.

    We also need to return to the sufficiency of Scripture—the Bible is not just a great book, it's the best book. After doing the same thing for a long time, we start to look to other models instead of going back to the book. In the last 20 years, our churches have softened the Gospel into a watered-down opportunity to know the truth. We're less effective in declaring salvation.

    Think about the "Got Milk?" campaign. No one messed with the product, just the packaging. My message to young pastors: Remind your congregation of what they have—the blood of Christ, salvation, heaven. If we go back to the product, the product changes lives.

    Insights for Crisis: David Anderson
    As founding and senior pastor of Bridgeway Community Church (bridgewayonline.org), David Anderson leads a multicultural congregation of 2,000 in Columbia, Md. He also serves as president of a cultural diversity consulting and resource organization called the BridgeLeader Network (bridgeleader.com).

    I would love to see greater numbers of people in our churches, but the reality is that I'm not measuring spiritual temperature by church attendance. High church attendance does not spiritual growth make; it's only a partial indicator of a community or culture.

    I continue to see a correlation between multicultural population growth and no church growth. Some 40% of Americans age 18 and younger are non-Anglo, and they perceive churches as archaic—the more unicultural the church, the more archaic.

    If we stay on this course, the Church will become irrelevant, and spirituality will continue to grow as an independent connection to God. But we don't have to be in decline. People want to connect. When I consult with leaders, I always tell them, "If your Wal-Mart is multicultural, your church can be multicultural."

    Unfortunately, most American churches today don't know how to reach outside one culture. We really haven't taught people in our congregations how to do multicultural evangelism.

    When a church focuses on reaching all people in its area of influence, God gets behind it. His power breaks down barriers that keep people out of church. While there may still be a need for black, ethnic or immigrant churches, I believe the ones that are the most vibrant—the ones that reach out across racial and cultural lines—have an extra touch of God's power.

    This content originally appeared in the May/June 2006 issue of Outreach magazine, the gathering place for ideas, insights and stories of today's outreach-oriented church leaders. For more ideas and information, visit outreachmagazine.com. For your free 3-issue mini subscription to Outreach magazine, click here.

    Copyright © 2006 Outreach.

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