Measuring Success in Youth Ministry

According to a study by The Barna Group (Ventura, California), 81% of American teens are engaged in church for an extended period of time yet only 5% hold to even the most basic of historical Christian beliefs.

Other unpublished research of which I am aware, suggests that in a typical large evangelical youth group only about 5% of the teens are genuinely living devoted Christian lives while the other 95% are to varying degrees living "intentionally deceitful dual lives" – in essence putting on a show for parents, teachers and church leaders while living dramatically different lives beyond their view. This same research suggests that there is significantly more pressure to drink, do drug, and have sex within the youth group than among peers outside the youth group. A similar situation seems to exist in Christian schools compared to secular schools.

These findings and others like them beg the question: What's really going on inside our youth groups? What does the make up of our group really look like?

One of the challenges of the Jackson Youth Initiative has been to figure out how to answer these questions.

Visualizing the Situation

The Graph below (Figure 1) represents what many might consider the ideal youth group. You have a few kids who extremely passionate disciples on one end and a few lost people on the verge of becoming new believers on the other and the vast majority are in the middle… beyond new believer but moving toward becoming mature disciples.

 

Figure 1– Ideal Distribution Graph

The same data might be represented by a circle graph(Figure 2) in which the Leader is at the center with the most devoted disciples close to the center and the level of devotion decreases as you move out from the center until you have a few non-believers on the fringes. The arrows represent new people trying to enter the group. Some will be turned away immediately. Those who continue to press in beyond the outer layers of the group will find genuine Christians who can lead them the Christ or to a deeper walk. Those who press in more can find genuine devoted disciples.

 

Figure 2 - Ideal Distribution Circle

I suspect that most youth ministries would say that these graphs are more or less representative of their group. But what if they are wrong?

Left Shift

What if, as some studies suggest, that distribution is shifted farther to the left? (Figure 3, Figure 4)

Figure 3 - Group Distribution Graph Shifted Left


Figure 4 - Group Distribution Circle Shifted Left

In this situation, the Leader is still at the center surrounded by the most devoted of the group. But, the level of devotion decreases dramatically as you move out from the inner circle and a large percentage of the group is comprised of non believers. The arrows still represent new people trying to enter the group. Some will be turned away immediately. Those who continue to press in beyond the outer layers of the group will find that the average person in this youth group is no different from them. Only those who truly press in can even find genuine Christians and even then they may not find devoted disciples.
This group is much different from the ideal group. The entire dynamic has changed. A group like that would need to be ministered to in a different way from one that looks like the ideal group.

Shallow Group

Perhaps the group is not a heavily dominated by unbelievers as represented by Figures 3 and 4. Perhaps it is one that fits the often used phrase "a mile wide and an inch deep." What would that look like? (Figure5, Figure 6)

Figure 5 - Group Distribution Graph – Shallow


Figure 6 - Group Distribution Circle – Shallow

This situation is more similar to the Left Shift group than the ideal group in many ways. While this group is not dominated by strong nonbelievers, it is also not dominated by strong Christians. In this situation, the Leader is still at the center surrounded by the most devoted of the group but this is a group of weak believers. The level of devotion decreases as you move out from the inner circle and a large percentage of the group is so shallow as to be virtually indistinguishable from of non believers. The arrows still represent new people trying to enter the group. Some will be turned away immediately. Those who continue to press in beyond the outer layers of the group will again find that the average person in this youth group is no different from them. Only those who truly press in can even find genuine Christians and even then they may not find devoted disciples.

It seems to me that it would be very important to know which of these groups you were dealing with as a leader and as a prospective group member. It would also be important if you were a parent. How many parents think they are sending the kids to a group that looks like the first one when in fact they are sending them to one of the others?

But how do you know? To my knowledge, no one does an assessment of group distribution like those represented here. If someone were to do such a thing, I think the key would be how do you 1) define and 2) measure the scale (Figure 7)

Figure 7 - Scale

If anyone knows of a scale or measurement system like this, please let me know.